Mets Spring Training Preview

Omar Minaya doesn’t appear to be the gambling-type, yet the Mets’ GM is betting on plenty of things breaking his way this season. While the odds are not completely stacked against Omar, if he’s wrong, Minaya and manager Jerry Manuel will likely be looking for a job at season’s end.

The pitching staff has two sure things: Ace Johan Santana, as good as any starter in the league, and closer Frankie “K-Rod” Rodriguez.

After that begins a conga line of question marks. Starters Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine are coming off a disappointing 2009 season.

Pelfrey’s biggest issue is handling runners on base, a problem that needs to be addressed if Pelf is to step up to the number two starter role.

Neither Maine nor Perez had over 15 starts in ’09. Perez is a head case who loses the plate on a regular basis. Maine missed a significant portion of the season with shoulder trouble and needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Then again, a whole host of Mets need a bounce back season.

David Wright was one of only three Mets to play over 130 games in ’09 but the third baseman’s batting average had more ups and downs than the Cyclone on Coney Island, unlike Wright’s power which stayed below par all season.

After highly-controversial offseason knee surgery, Carlos Beltran will begin the season on the DL, right where the centerfielder spent a majority of last season.

When Carlos returns – tentatively scheduled for early May – he, Wright and free agent signee Jason Bay need to form a formidable heart of the order to give the Mets any playoff aspirations.

The only major offseason acquisition, Bay, will fortify the outfield and bring it up to Major League standards, it was not last season.

Jose Reyes – also coming off an injury-plagued 2009 – needs to return to form, both as a shortstop and leadoff hitter.

The quality of the roster takes a steep tumble after that, with only rightfielder Jeff Francoeur being a legitimate everyday player outside of the top half-dozen.

Aging second baseman Luis Castillo is coming off a surprisingly respectable season, batting .302 and stealing 20 bases in 142 games. The Mets would, no doubt, sign on for such production again.

Daniel Murphy is the favorite to start at first base, but Manuel will give Mike Jacobs and 22-year-old Ike Davis a good look going into the season. The 25-year-old Murphy was the next big thing for the Mets entering last season but was a bitter disappointment both in the field – he started in leftfield – and at the plate, batting just .266.

The late offseason signing of Rod Barajas gives the Mets a legitimate presence behind the plate. While his bat is not awe-inspiring, Barajas has caught over 100 games several times in his career. Omir Santos will return to the backup role.

Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve, both coming off injury – aren’t they all, will compete for a starting spot in the rotation.

How Manuel gets the ball from the starters to Frankie needs to be sorted out; Sean Green, Bobby Parnel, Jenrry Mejia, Pedro Feliciano and Japanese import Ryota Igarashi will all be considered in Spring.

Feliciano is best used as a lefty specialist and Igarashi is an unknown commodity in the majors. Mejia has shown promise, but the Mets hierarchy may want him back in the minors for more seasoning as a starter.

Angel Pagan and Gary Matthews will duel it out for the centerfield job until Beltran comes back, at which point both will be riding the pine.

The Phillies remain the class of the division, and trading for Roy Halladay in the offseason only increases the separation between Philadelphia and the rest of the NL East. Philly’s lineup is still the best in the Senior Circuit.

The Braves, led by a plethora of pitching, and the Marlins, with a multitude of young talent, will be in the Wild Card race all season.

OUTLOOK:
The Mets need to get off to a good start to rid the team of the losing stigma from last season. With a healthy team, The Amazins’ can win between 85 and 90 games.

If two through four in the starting rotation stay off the DL and pitch relatively well, the Mets are capable of hanging with Atlanta and Florida for a playoff spot.